Ned’s Notes

Or, Why Stocks Probably won't make you Rich Everyone has heard about the secretary who hit it big on Wal-Mart stock, or the day trader who made a fortune from his couch. Who among us hasn't wondered if they might be able to pick out a big winner? Although disappointing, it should probably come as…

Let’s face it, index-based mutual funds and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) can be pretty boring.  Since their job is merely to match index returns, not beat them, they are mostly left to compete on costs which, no offense to Sam Walton, is just not that exciting.  But they are popular. Just two companies, Vanguard and....Read…

Compounding: The Most Powerful Factor Are you satisfied with your investing results over the last 20 years? If you were exposed to the market, you likely did reasonably well, despite the two hiccups in 2000 and 2008.  However, those who invested broadly during the prior 20 years likely did much better: Read More...

Correlation Madness Super Bowl Folly May 17th saw the year’s worst day for the stock market so far, as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 each lost 1.8%, and the Nasdaq plunged 2.6%, its biggest one-day loss since the 'Brexit' vote last June. The drop snapped a Nasdaq streak of 171 sessions without a greater…

It's Just Human Nature Why really smart people still make stunningly bad investment decisions As recently as 2015, Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital was rated as one of the world's top 20 Hedge Funds. Barely two years later Ackman’s well-heeled clientele is smarting from a crushing $4 billion loss... Read more...

Buffaloed by CAPE Unless you spent the last two months in a coma you likely know the stock market is charging ahead. People who own stocks are undoubtedly pleased after several years of lackluster returns but the savvy investor will be asking whether the upward trajectory can continue.  Absent some calamity, near term the answer…

 Downlow on the Dow On January 25th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gained 155 points to close above 20,000 for the first time ever. Should you care? To answer that most excellent question, Read more...

The third and final NN on the new presidency looks at what Trump’s pledge to deregulate America could mean for financial markets. According to the official Trump platform, over-regulation costs our economy $2 trillion a year and reduces household wealth by nearly $15,000 dollars. In fact, says Trump, the US economy is 25% smaller than…

Spending into Prosperity? The last NN considered the possible effects of President-elect Trump’s proposal of lower corporate tax rates on the financial markets. This issue turns to Trump’s plans for a massive boost in infrastructure spending. There is no doubt we need an overhaul. In a 2013 study by the American Society of Civil Engineers,…

Trump’s victory in the U.S. Presidential election sent jolts through the financial markets. Having anticipated a Clinton victory for several weeks, on election night stock futures initially fell more than 900 points as Trump’s upset triumph came into focus, with volatility shooting up by 24%.  Though both measures had recovered by the end of the…